HDI Global publishes a physical climate risk assessment of Tokyo’s Ueno Park, using the analysis to illustrate the insurance implications of extreme heat and heavy rainfall for densely populated cities. The study is carried out by HDI Risk Consulting, a wholly owned subsidiary of the corporate and specialty insurer, as part of HDI Global’s Iconic Landmarks series. It draws on EarthScan datasets and the firm’s ARGOS 4.0 tool to visualise climate risks, evaluate their potential impacts, and identify response measures. Ueno Park, one of Japan’s five oldest public parks, attracts around two million visitors a year during cherry blossom season. Under a business-as-usual scenario, the analysis finds heatwaves in Tokyo could lengthen by more than two weeks on average by 2050, rising from approximately 6.94 days a year in 1970 to around 21.28 days. The assessment also points to rising risks from heavy rainfall, including localised “guerrilla rainstorms” that push urban drainage systems to their limits and can disrupt transport, supply chains, and business continuity well beyond the affected area. “Our goal is to identify climate risks with precise spatial accuracy,” said Lars Regner, head of resilience services at HDI Risk Consulting. “Ueno Park shows that local changes are part of broader climatic developments affecting entire cities. As a result, adaptations related to cooling, storm water management, and vegetation stability are required.” Johanna Rohrer, risk analyst for natural hazards at HDI Risk Consulting, said the urban heat island effect acts as a systemic risk factor in dense cities. “This has economic consequences: extreme heat reduces worker productivity in logistics, construction, and transport, increases energy demand for cooling, and poses a serious public health risk. At the same time, business interruption risks and threats to infrastructure and supply chains are rising, putting pressure on companies and insurers,” she said. The firm notes that the insurance sector has adapted to these pressures, with climate-related risks being modelled in greater detail and factored into risk analyses and pricing. Its analysis sets out optimisation measures for urban planning including micro-heat zoning, cooling corridors, sponge city elements, protection of underground infrastructure, and embedding heat as an economic risk factor. Hiro Yamasaki, managing director of HDI Global Japan, said: “Through forward-looking analytics, we translate cutting-edge climate risk models into practical, action-oriented solutions for our clients and stakeholders. The example of Ueno Park demonstrates the far-reaching economic and environmental consequences of local extreme weather events.”
