Impact Forecasting, Aon Benfield’s catastrophe model development team, has developed a French Flood scenario model.
The mode, developed in conjunction with reinsurer SCOR, will help to better understand and prepare for the potential cost of a flood affecting the country’s major cities.
Since 1980, France has annually averaged more then $500 million in economic losses from floods, ranking the second-costliest peril after windstorm. In addition, simulations from the model show that a reoccurrence of historical flood events, such as Paris and Lyon, might cause significant flood losses today.
The new model quantifies losses for historical and hypothetical flood scenarios for the cities of Paris, Lyon and Toulouse to help SCOR and Aon Benfield clients enhance their view of catastrophe risk in these high exposure areas.
The first step of the model development was the collaboration between SCOR, Impact Forecasting and Aon Benfield’s Paris team.
Data from and analyses of historical records, along with recent studies, were incorporated into the model to reflect current hydrological conditions and potential flood risks.
Petr Puncochar, head of flood model development at Impact Forecasting, explained: “The key component for success was the detailed discussions with SCOR throughout the model development process and the flexibility of our elements loss calculation platform to incorporate critical elements such as the latest modeled flows, flood extent shapes and vulnerability functions.”
