Hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin is projected by seasonal outlook providers to be near or below average for the 2014 season, according to a new briefing by Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC.
"The risk of a landfalling hurricane is a serious threat for any tropical season, regardless of seasonal outlooks for the Atlantic Basin at large," said James Waller, research meteorologist for GC Analytics.
"While there is indeed a weak correlation between hurricane counts in the Atlantic Basin and the number of US landfalls, statistical significance is the subject of some debate in the scientific community.”
“Warmer waters in the West Atlantic and Caribbean coupled with the uncertainty surrounding the strength and placement of the impending El Niño, warrant a moment of pause for the 2014 season."
For the Atlantic Basin, seasonal outlook providers are expecting tropical activity to fall below the long-term average of 1954-2013. The forecasts also fall clearly below the short-term mean during this timeframe.
The two key factors that have the greatest influence on the hurricane season include the expected onset of an El Niño and cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR), both of which serve to suppress hurricane formation and severity.
In light of this, a few important factors warrant consideration, according to the briefing.
As the strength and placement of the El Niño remain uncertain, the effects of the disruptive, hurricane suppressing wind shear may be displaced. At the same time, SSTs are not cooler than average in the waters adjacent to the eastern US and the northern Caribbean, presenting an environment that could enable hurricane development and landfall.
The briefing states that preparation is key for insurance companies, as any hurricane can produce wind, storm surge and inland flood ramifications. The severity and scope of these impacts are often unpredictable, as was evident with Hurricanes Katrina in 2005 and Sandy in 2012.
